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Shanghai building city grows contribution to be negative caution to GDP
From;    Author:Stand originally
On the Shanghai government press conference that will hold on July 24, city statistic bureau introduced at the beginning of Cai Xu of spokesman of total economy division, news Shanghai countryman economy grows a case first half of the year this year. Notable is, express when answer reporter quizs at the beginning of Cai Xu, the contributive rate that course of study of Shanghai negotiable securities and real estate held pair of whole city economy to grow last year is achieved 19% , and the growth contribution rate of course of study of Shanghai negotiable securities is first half of the year this year 0, the growth contribution rate of real estate is negative number, bring about GDP to increase 0.4 percent less. (on July 25 " news morning paper " )

The contribution that Shanghai real estate increases to GDP is negative number, the hind leg that local GDP grows pulled on certain level, it is apparently inside countrywide limits the building clinchs a deal the phenomenon that the capacity appears below atrophic setting. The building clinchs a deal measure large-scale atrophy, cause slow down in demand of relevant production data, obtain employment post decreases, reduce real estate to be led to the contribution of GDP thereby, till be negative number. And the building that appears generally currently clinchs a deal measure atrophic phenomenon, it is to do obeisance to apparently some closer year come deformation of price of each district house rises be granted. Like bolt bronco when house price violent wind goes up, break away from general income level of the public far, nature of great majority people also buys a house feebly, or sweat and toil of lifetime of not reconciled to chooses by exploit to poll with the foot, below this kind of case, the building clinchs a deal the power that measures nature to also present atrophy, bring about real estate because of this to drop to the contributive rate of local GDP.

Some closer year come, partial local government grows to help the price that push a house wantonly quickly for seek GDP, go up for house price abnormal through all sorts of visible hands add fuel to the fire, but what never think of is, at this late hour, real estate not only fail to promote the increase rate that lowered local GDP instead, this cannot say to have acid interest not greatly. “ of partial local government works hard the estate market of ” not only did not promote lower local GDP increase rate instead, the reality of such “ brutal ” should let partial local government apparently from local economy growth is placed in aid abnormal of the price that push a house to go up awake in the dream over, the local economy that keep abreast of and rises to helping economy of seek of the price that push a house grows method to undertake thinking over necessarily.

The initiative phase of the price that push a house is aided in local government, the rise quickly or can have to push tall GDP more quickly effect of house price, but when house price all the way violent wind rises come to break away from local economy badly to grow horizontal rate, inevitable meeting bears because of public of house price Yuan Chao ability and tend to estate market atrophic, when this when, real estate is likely not only cannot increase contribution for local GDP, instead may become a factor that lowers local GDP increase rate. More important still depend on, if allow,in all sorts of blame by house price normal element action issues abnormal violent wind to go up, the likelihood brings about estate market bubble to blow bigger more, and once appear case of cracked of estate market bubble, it is estate market not simply, whole countryman economy is affected very gravely possibly, and the likelihood is in very a paragraph long vitality restores hard inside period. So, aid push house price deformation to rise, not only the goal that achieves stimulative economy to develop for a long time quickly hard, and the likelihood falls for macroscopical economy moving bury tremendous it is deadly risk even.
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